The focus of the FX market is today aimed at the May labor market report. Esther Reichelt, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, believes that the US Dollar could strengthen on strong employment figures.
US labor market as sustainable driver for inflation and the Dollar?
The Fed probably wants to see some easing of the labor market before considering a loosening of monetary policy. This may explain why the Fed is reluctant to commit to an extended pause in interest rates, and as a result, the Dollar may quickly recover yesterday’s losses if we see a strong labor market today. On the other hand, this also means that the inflation outlook as well as the future course of the Fed and the US dollar are fraught with great uncertainty.
As a result, I remain skeptical about the USD rally continuing.
See – Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Banks expect labor market to lose momentum only slowly
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