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Canadiens vs. Bruins prediction: Regression favors Boston on puck line

We have a Canadiens vs. Bruins prediction as the Atlantic’s top team hosts the Atlantic’s worst team. 

Boston still has a shot of breaking Montreal’s season points record of 137 set in 1967-77, although it would require regulation wins in seven of the final 12 games. 

So, even though the Canadiens are outmatched every which way, perhaps some sense of pride will motivate the Habs in the NHL on Thursday night. 

Either way, the Bruins are monster home favorites at TD Garden. But can we find any betting value when the betting line is so lopsided? 

Betting on the NHL?

Canadiens vs. Bruins odds

(via BetMGM)

Moneyline: Canadiens (+335) vs. Bruins (-440)

Spread: Canadiens +1.5 (+140) vs. Bruins -1.5 (-165)

Total: Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110)

Bruins vs. Canadiens prediction

Although the Bruins have already clinched a postseason berth, they haven’t taken their foot off the gas.

The B’s are 7-3 over their past 10 games and hunting for a fifth consecutive victory.

Boston has outscored its opponents 17-3 over the four-game win streak, upping the Bruins’ goal differential to a whopping +114 on the season.

For context, the +114 goal differential is more than double any other team in the NHL this season. 

Pure dominance. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have shown little signs of life.

The Habs have dropped nine of their past 11 games and suffered numerous injuries during the stretch (Josh Anderson, Kaiden Guhle, Christian Dvorak and Jordan Harris).

However, the Habs pulled off a solid victory over Tampa Bay last night, holding off the Lightning for a 3-2 home victory.

Could the Canadiens bring some momentum into this matchup? 

I’d argue the opposite. Instead, Thursday is a prime letdown spot for Montreal traveling to Boston on a two-day turnaround off a huge victory. 

First, the Canadiens needed some luck to beat Tampa Bay.

The Habs were out-shot 33-20 and lost the face-off battle 27-20, and Money Puck’s post-game expectancy projected the Habs win that contest only 41.1% of the time (out of 1000 simulations). 

Therefore, we can target the Habs for some game-to-game negative regression. 

Second, the Canadiens are starting goalie Jake Allen instead of Sam Montembeault, per Habs In High Heels on Twitter.

Per Money Puck, Montembeault has recorded 13.4 Goals Saved Above Expected to Allen’s 0.1 this year. 

In other words, the backup goalie is starting for Montreal today. 

And while the Bruins are likely to start their backup goalie, Jeremy Swayman, Swayman has posted 18.7 Goals Saved Above Expected this season.

Swayman is no Linus Ullmark, but he’s been more capable than most netminders this year. 

Finally, the Bruins have owned the Canadiens. The B’s are 8-1-1 in the past 10 matchups with the Habs, also going 8-2 against the puck line, per Bet Labs. 

David Pastrnak has been on a tear, recording 13 points in 10 March games.

Given he put up four points in 22 shifts the last time out against Montreal, I’m also willing to bet he has a big night tonight. 

Ultimately, I expect the Habs to regress after a lucky win in a poor matchup, and I’m looking for the Bruins to cruise to victory.

Therefore, I’ll bet on the Bruins to cover the puck line in a dominant home win.  

And, given The Action Network’s PRO model projects the puck line at Boston -2.15, I see some value in the spread number available at Caesars Sportsbook. 

Canadiens vs. Bruins pick

Boston Bruins -1.5 (-165) at Caesars Sportsbook

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