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Golf

Farmers Insurance Open 2023 betting guide: PGA expert predictions and top prop picks for the famed Torrey Pines tournament

It has been a long time since we have seen an odds board similar to the one we all woke up to for the Farmers Insurance Open on Monday. Sitting at the top of the outright list was Jon Rahm at +400! Not since the days of Tiger Woods have we seen such a favorite listed.

I’m not comparing Jon Rahm to Tiger Woods or his eight wins at Torrey Pines. This comparison concerns the oddsmakers and their fear of “Rahmbo” at a course he performs very well on. Rahm has two wins in his last two starts, and he’s a combined 54 under par in those events. He has nine career wins on the PGA Tour, and two significant ones have come at Torrey: his first tour victory (Famers 2017) and first major championship (US Open 2021).

Needless to say, Rahm will be focused on win number three this week. Even though he’s playing great, I’m not ready for an outright card with just Jon’s name. At 4-1, with four others from the Top 10 in the world competing, the odds don’t justify going that route. Instead of picking Rahm to win, let’s take another strategy toward winning. Why does Jon Rahm play so well at Torrey Pines?

  • He dominates the PGA Tour off the tee. Jon led the tour in Strokes Gained:Off the Tee (SG:OTT) in 2022 and this year he is statistically better than he was last season. The field at Torrey Pines hits the fairway 53% of the time. That’s well below the PGA Tour average of 62%. If you want to contend at Torrey, get the ball in play off the tee. 
  • Rahm is long. He averages 313.6 yards off the tee and hits the fairway 67% of the time at that length. Torrey Pines’ South Course measures over 7,700 yards. It is one of the longest on the PGA Tour. 
  • More than 45% of the approach shots at Torrey Pines South Course come from over 175 yards. Over Jon’s last twenty events played, he’s gained 1.3 strokes against the field on Strokes Gained:Approach (SG:APP). 
  • Putting on the Poa annua greens at Torrey Pines takes talent. Since 2020, Jon Rahm has gained an average of 4.2 strokes against the field on the South Course.

Rahm’s resume at this facility is impressive. For those who aren’t familiar with the Farmers Insurance Open, here’s a quick summary. A field of 156 players will compete this week starting on WEDNESDAY! In order to avoid the NFL Championship games, the PGA Tour will start one day earlier than usual and wrap up on Saturday night in primetime. The field will compete on the North and South Course for the first 36-holes.

  • North Course (one round) 
    • Par 72 measuring 7,258 yards
    • Bentgrass greens and forty-two bunkers
    • The scorecard is comprised of four Par 3’s and 5’s and ten Par 4’s
  • South Course (three rounds)
    • Par 72 measuring 7,765 yards
    • Poa annua greens and eighty-two bunkers
    • Same scorecard, four Par 3’s and 5’s and ten Par 4’s

The Top 65 and ties will compete over the weekend. Five of the Top 10 players in the world are vying for a $1.566 million dollar winner’s check and an $8.7 million dollar purse overall. Over the last decade, the average winning score is 13 under par. Over that same period, the average winner’s odds pre-tournament are +5500 (55-1).

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering winners, placements, H2H matchups, One and Done picks, and DFS recommendations please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Now, let’s take a look at the full odds board.

All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Farmers Insurance Open 2023: Odds to win

Jon Rahm +350
Xander Schauffele +1000
Tony Finau +1200
Justin Thomas +1400
Collin Morikawa +1400
Will Zalatoris +1600
Sung-Jae Im +1800
Jason Day +2000
Max Homa +2200
Taylor Montgomery +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Maverick McNealy +3000
Si-Woo Kim +3300
Justin Rose +4000
Sahith Theegala +4000
Cam Davis +5000
Adam Hadwin +5000
Keegan Bradley +5000
JJ Spaun +5000
Taylor Pendrith +7000
Davis Thompson +7500
Gary Woodland +7500
Hayden Buckley +7500
Wyndham Clark +8000
Will Gordon +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Kurt Kitayama +8000
Ryan Palmer +8000
Rickie Fowler +8000
Luke List +8000
Harris English +8000
Patrick Rodgers +10000
Sebastian Munoz +10000
Scott Stallings +10000
Brendan Steele +10000
Dean Burmester +10000
Thomas Detry +10000
Emiliano Grillo +10000
Davis Riley +10000
Matthew NeSmith +12500
Robby Shelton +12500
Beau Hossler +12500
Nick Hardy +12500
Adam Svensson +12500
Garrick Higgo +15000
Taylor Moore +15000
Ben Taylor +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Aaron Rai +15000
Ben Griffin +15000
Byeong-Hun An +15000
Stephan Jaeger +15000
Seong-Hyeon Kim +15000
Jhonattan Vegas +17500
Danny Lee +20000
Cameron Champ +20000
Michael Thompson +20000
Callum Tarren +20000
Matti Schmid +20000
Joseph Bramlett +20000
Trey Mullinax +20000
Justin Suh +20000
Kevin Yu +20000
Lee Hodges +20000
Carl Yuan +20000
Austin Eckroat +25000
Charley Hoffman +25000
Lanto Griffin +25000
Adam Long +25000
Harry Higgs +25000
Harry Hall +25000
Sam Ryder +27500
Dou Zecheng +30000
Justin Lower +30000
Martin Laird +30000
David Lingmerth +30000
Cameron Percy +30000
Aaron Baddeley +30000
Doc Redman +30000
Henrik Norlander +30000
Kevin Streelman +30000
Austin Smotherman +30000
MJ Daffue +30000
Scott Piercy +30000
Doug Ghim +30000
Cole Hammer +30000
Harrison Endycott +35000
Brian Stuard +40000
Dylan Frittelli +40000
Ben Martin +40000
Rory Sabbatini +40000
Dylan Wu +40000
Taiga Semikawa +40000
Eric Cole +40000
Andrew Novak +40000
Adam Schenk +40000
SY Noh +40000
Tyson Alexander +40000
Austin Cook +40000
Michael Kim +40000
James Hahn +15000
Sean O’Hair +50000
Kevin Tway +50000
Tyler Duncan (US) +50000
Peter Malnati +50000
Paul Haley +50000
Augusto Nunez +50000
Ryan Armour +50000
Zac Blair +50000
Satoshi Kodaira +50000
JB Holmes +50000
Trevor Werbylo +50000
Keita Nakajima +50000
Joey Vrzich +50000
Patrick Welch +50000
Michael Gligic +50000
Robert Streb +50000
Nicolas Echavarria +50000
William McGirt +50000
Brice Garnett +50000
Erik Barnes +50000
Camilo Villegas +50000
Vincent Norrman +50000
Cody Gribble +50000
Hank Lebioda +50000
Sam Stevens +50000
Tano Goya +50000
Kelly Kraft +50000
Philip Knowles +75000
Michael Block +75000
Jimmy Walker +75000
Kyle Stanley +75000
Jonathan Byrd +75000
Richy Werenski +75000
Kyle Westmoreland +100000
Nick Watney +100000
Martin Trainer +100000
Scott Harrington +100000
Ryan Brehm +100000
Anders Albertson +100000
Trevor Cone +100000
Ben Crane +100000
Arjun Atwal +100000
Michael Herrera +100000
Carson Young +100000
Jason Dufner +100000
Jim Herman +100000
Kevin Roy +100000
Bill Haas +100000
Brent Grant +100000
Brandon Matthews +100000

Famers Insurance Open 2023: Best bets and top props

Whoever plans to take down the tourney favorite and win come Saturday will need the skill set Rahm possesses. Here’s a quick summary of those who have a chance.

SG:T2G leaders Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Luke List, Collin Morikawa
SG:APP leaders Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Will Zalatoris
SG:PUTT (Poa) Jason Day, Xander Schauffele, Si Woo Kim, Tony Finau

H2H

I’m always looking for an edge in H2H matchups. PointsBet offered Rickie Fowler versus Kurt Kitayama. Kitayama is a killer on long courses. He drives it deep and hits 73% of his GIR’s. A solid ball striker he fits the mold at Torrey. Rickie is still searching. The swing change is coming, but has not cemented itself yet. Last week at the AMEX, he recorded a triple and two double bogeys. That level of inconsistency at Torrey will have him home after 36-holes. Take Kurt (-120 PointsBet) and call it a day.

Top 10

He has two starts, and two Top 7 finishes in the Farmers. Will Zalatoris (+180 DraftKings) is a great Top 10 prediction. He’s the best long iron player in the field; ranked first for proximity over 200 yards. There’s no doubt he has the tools and tee to green skill (ranked first SG:T2G) needed to contend.

Top 5

Just because I didn’t pick him to win doesn’t mean we can’t make a little money off the favorite. Take Jon Rahm (+115 DraftKings) to finish in the Top 5. For all the reasons outlined above and more. In his last six starts at Torrey, he has finished 3rd, 1st (US Open), seventh, second, and fifth.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.


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