NFL odds, picks, predictions for Week 11: Expert model projects Ravens handle Bengals, Chiefs edge Eagles

The NFL season is entering the final stretch of the season, and already, it’s getting late for a pair of preseason Super Bowl contenders. The Bengals lost to the surging Texans at home to snap a three-game losing streak. The Bills stunningly lost to the Broncos to fall to 5-5.

The rest of the season won’t be getting any easier for either team moving forward. The Bengals face the Ravens on “Thursday Night Football” in what could be a de facto elimination game for the AFC North title if Cincinnati loses, while the Bills’ chances of winning the AFC East could be dealt a massive blow if they fall to the Jets for a second time this season.

But while those two teams vie for their playoff lives, a pair of Super Bowl favorites will face off in perhaps the game of the year, when the Eagles head to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. The two teams lead their respective conferences and are coming off bye weeks, and each have a chance to put together a statement win that puts them ahead as the clear team to beat in the NFL this season.

WEEK 11 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread

Each week, Sporting News’ model will project every game in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the number of times a team wins a matchup and calculate the win probability. The model adjusts after each week as it learns more about each team and that team’s quarterback.

Listed for each game is its projected spread, according to the model, and a team’s win probability. We’ve also included updated playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with each game are not based on bookmakers, but rather how the model sees the game playing out. We will then compare the model’s odds with those from Caesars Sportsbook, to see how bookmakers are seeing the week’s games.

Here’s how the model sees Week 11 shaping up.

NFL picks, predictions Week 11

Ravens (-4) vs. Bengals

Win probability: 63.8%, Ravens

The Ravens and Bengals are each coming off humbling losses. Each were riding high coming into home games as near-touchdown favorites, and the Ravens watched a massive lead evaporate to a loss to the Browns while the Bengals saw C.J. Stroud carve up the defense en route to disappointing defeats. These two teams still appear to be legit contenders, but both the model and Caesars like the Ravens as 4-point favorites in Baltimore on a short week.

Cowboys (-9) vs. Panthers

Win probability: 78.9%, Cowboys

Dallas has struggled this season when its faced legit contenders — and the Cardinals, for some reason — but for the most part, it has handled the teams out of the playoff picture (again, see Arizona, Week 3 for exception). The Panthers lost to the Bears, making them now the worst team in the NFL based on win-loss percentage. Crazier things have happened, but even in Charlotte, the model (Cowboys, -9) and Caesars (Cowboys, -10.5) are on Dallas to win big.

Browns (-2) vs. Steelers

Win probability: 58.4%, Browns

The Steelers have yet to out-gain their opponents in total yards this season, yet they keep winning, most recently against the Packers. While Pittsburgh won last time it played the Browns, who had Deshaun Watson at the time, it still needed two defensive touchdowns to come out on top. Who knows what to expect of Dorian Thompson-Robinson as he makes his second NFL start, but the Browns defense against this Steelers’ offense feels like a mismatch. The model is picking the Browns on a 2-point spread, while Caesars is calling this a pick ’em.

Lions (-12) vs. Bears

Win probability: 85.5%, Lions

Justin Fields is back for the Bears, who are fresh off a win. Good things ahead then, right? Well, not so fast. Facing the Lions is a tall task for anyone this season, and the model has this matchup as the second-most lopsided game of the week, picking the Lions by 12. The Lions are 9-point favorites, per Caesars.

Chargers (-4) vs. Packers

Win probability: 65.5%, Chargers

Beating the Rams seemed to be a step in the right direction for the Packers. Then they lost to the Steelers. They’re preparing for a brutal stretch, facing the Chargers, Lions and Chiefs. That road starts by hosting the Chargers, who are coming off a narrow defeat at home to the Lions. Both the model and Caesars like L.A.’s chances of bouncing back, with the model picking Los Angeles by 4 and Caesars going Chargers by 3.

Texans (-10) vs. Cardinals

Win probability: 80.3%, Texans

When the season started, this game would’ve been viewed as the ultimate win-win for the Cardinals, who were tanking for the first overall pick. Now, it looks a lot more intriguing. Stroud has vaulted himself into the conversation among the best NFL quarterbacks, and Kyler Murray looked solid in a winning effort against the Falcons. There’s still too much uncertainty with Murray coming back from his injury and the overall state of the Cardinals for the model to back off Houston winning big, however, as it has the Texans as 10-point favorites. Caesars has it considerably closer, though still setting the spread at 5 points for the Texans.

Jaguars (-10) vs. Titans

Win probability: 80.9%, Jaguars

The AFC South doesn’t look too bad, with the lone exception being the team that has dominated it for so long now. Will Levis has looked shaky as the starter since winning against the Falcons, and while Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars struggled against the 49ers last week, this still appears to be two teams worlds apart. The Jaguars are heavy favorites for both the model (10 points) and Caesars (7) in a get-well game.

Dolphins (-13) vs. Raiders

Win probability: 86.7%, Dolphins

The Raiders seem to only win when they have interim head coaches. Rich Bisaccia led Las Vegas to a surprising playoff appearance in 2021, and now Antonio Pierce has led the Raiders to back-to-back wins. A third straight win would be nothing short of stunning. Aidan O’Connell has been serviceable for the Raiders, but he’ll now have to keep pace with a Dolphins team fresh off a bye in Miami. This is both the widest Caesars spread (-12.5) and widest model spread (-13) of the week.

Commanders (-5) vs. Giants

Win probability: 68.7%, Commanders

It almost feels surprising the model thinks the Commanders are only 5-point favorites. New York has looked atrocious with Tommy DeVito at quarterback, and while Washington has struggled defensively in recent weeks, there’s little reason to expect the Giants to do much of anything as they work toward that No. 1 pick. Caesars set the spread at 9.5, favoring Washington.

49ers (-11) vs. Buccaneers

Win probability: 83.7%, 49ers

Putting aside a rough effort against Stroud, the Tampa Bay defense has been solid of late, including a recent stifling of Levis and the Titans. But it will need more help from an offense that’s struggled late if it’s going to keep up on the road against the 49ers, who appeared to get their groove back in a thumping of the Jaguars last Sunday. In near agreement, the model has the 49ers as 11-point favorites, while Caesars has San Francisco as 11.5-point favorites.

Bills (-8) vs. Jets

Win probability: 75.5%, Bills

It’s getting to the point where this feels like a desperate win for the Bills. Losing to the Broncos as massive favorites dealt a major blow to the Bills’ playoff chances, dropping them down to 28.9 percent, per the model. Buffalo lost to the Zach Wilson-led Jets in Week 1 when Aaron Rodgers was hurt on the opening drive, but now the game heads to the state of New York, where the Bills open as 8-point home favorites per the model and 7-point favorites per Caesars.

Seahawks (-2) vs. Rams

Win probability: 57.7%, Seahawks

The Rams are getting a boost this week with Matthew Stafford expected to return under center against a Seattle team that hasn’t seemed to hit its stride offensively the way it did last year. These two teams met in Week 1 in Seattle, and the Rams routed the Seahawks 30-13. Seattle is a slight road favorite this week at 2 points per the model and 1 per Caesars, but this figures to be one of the closer games of the week.

Vikings (-2) vs. Broncos

Win probability: 57.2%, Vikings

There was a point not too long ago many were hoping this game would be moved out of the primetime slot. Many might still be hoping that, but for some, it figures to be an intriguing matchup. The Vikings are now 2-0 in the Joshua Dobbs era, and should be expecting Justin Jefferson back soon. The Broncos started the season 1-5, but have since beaten the Packers, Chiefs and Bills. The model is favoring Dobbs by 2, while Caesars is going Vikings by 2.5.

Chiefs (-3) vs. Eagles

Win probability: 59.1%, Chiefs

No doubt about it: this is the game of the week. All eyes will be on the Super Bowl rematch that looks like it could even be a Super Bowl preview — the Chiefs and Eagles are No. 1 and 2 in Super Bowl odds, per the model, respectively. Both teams are rested and both are looking to fully assert themselves atop the NFL world. It’s again a near-equal projection by both the model and Caesars, with the model favoring Kansas City by 2.5 and Caesars setting the line at Chiefs by 2.5.

Updated NFL projections 2023

AFC East

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Dolphins 11-6 86.6% 6.0% 92.6% 12.6% 12.4% 5.0%
Bills 9-8 9.4% 19.5% 28.9% 0.1% 2.6% 1.1%
Jets 8-9 4.0% 5.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Patriots 4-13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Ravens 12-5 59.2% 33.0% 92.1% 9.4% 17.1% 8.9%
Browns 10-7 16.3% 47.0% 63.3% 1.8% 1.8% 0.7%
Steelers 10-7 14.1% 40.2% 54.3% 1.6% 1.6% 0.7%
Bengals 10-7 10.5% 35.9% 46.4% 0.8% 4.1% 2.1%

AFC South

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Jaguars 11-6 62.5% 23.6% 86.1% 7.3% 6.8% 2.8%
Texans 10-7 33.0% 31.9% 64.9% 2.7% 2.1% 0.8%
Colts 8-9 3.7% 16.1% 19.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Titans 6-11 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Chiefs 13-4 97.5% 1.9% 99.4% 63.4% 49.3% 26.6%
Chargers 9-8 2.2% 29.7% 31.8% 0.3% 1.8% 0.7%
Broncos 7-10 0.2% 7.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Raiders 7-10 0.2% 2.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC East

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Eagles 14-3 94.4% 5.6% 100.0% 66.8% 49.4% 26.0%
Cowboys 11-6 5.7% 87.4% 93.1% 1.9% 5.5% 2.6%
Commanders 6-11 0.0% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Giants 4-13 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC North

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Lions 13-4 83.9% 15.5% 99.4% 17.4% 17.7% 8.4%
Vikings 10-7 16.0% 71.9% 87.9% 0.7% 2.5% 1.0%
Packers 6-11 0.1% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Bears 6-11 0.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC South

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
Saints 9-8 61.4% 9.7% 71.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Buccaneers 8-9 23.1% 12.7% 35.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Falcons 7-10 15.4% 7.3% 22.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Panthers 3-14 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC West

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Conference champion% Super Bowl champion%
49ers 12-5 85.5% 13.2% 98.7% 12.6% 21.7% 11.4%
Seahawks 10-7 14.3% 61.6% 75.9% 0.6% 1.5% 0.6%
Rams 6-11 0.2% 5.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cardinals 4-13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

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