NZD/USD grinds higher around 0.6300 as China reopening improves sentiment, US data weighs on greenback

  • NZD/USD seesaws inside immediate trading range, prints mild gains.
  • China Industrial Profits deteriorate, Beijing scraps Covid quarantine rule for inbound travelers.
  • US Dollar Index prints three-day downtrend as softer US statistics challenge hawkish Fed bets.

NZD/USD bulls flirt with the 0.6300 round figure while posting a three-day winning streak early Tuesday. In doing so, the Kiwi pair cheers the broadly-softer US Dollar, as well as the risk-on mood. However, recently downbeat data from China joins the holiday mood to probe the bulls.

That said, China’s Industrial Profits dropped 3.6% during the January-November period versus -3.0% previous readings. Further, geopolitical fears emanating from Russia and North Korea also challenge the Kiwi pair buyers amid the year-end inaction in the markets.

Even so, risk appetite remains firmer as scrapped the COVID quarantine rule for inbound travelers, starting from January 08.

Furthermore, the softer prints of the US inflation and output data raise doubts about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next hawkish move and hence weigh on the US Dollar. As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) drops for the third consecutive day, down 0.13% intraday near 104.05 by the press time.

On Friday, US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, mostly known as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, matched 4.7% YoY forecasts for November versus 5.0% prior. Further, the Durable Goods Orders for the said month marked a contraction of 2.1% compared to -0.6% expected and 0.7% previous readings. More importantly, the Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft marked improvement of 0.2% compared to 0.0% expected and 0.3% revised down prior. Additionally, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow tracker rose to show +3.7% annualized growth for the fourth quarter (Q4) versus +2.7% previous estimates.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.75% intraday to 3,898 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields retreat to 3.73% at the latest.

Looking forward, China-linked optimism could join the bearish bias from the Fed to propel the NZD/USD pair during a likely inactive week comprising no major data/events.

Technical analysis

An upside break of the previous resistance line from December 15, around 0.6215 by the press time, keeps NZD/USD buyers hopeful amid the bullish MACD signals. However, the 21-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6345 guards the quote’s immediate upside.


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