UFC 282 odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada’s most trusted sportsbook.
With a tremendous opportunity to fight for gold, Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev are ready to take advantage and deliver. Who will walk out of UFC 282 as the UFC light heavyweight champion?
UFC 282 takes place inside Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena on December 10.
The co-main event will see rising star Paddy Pimblett looking to continue his ascension to the top against Jared Gordon. Also on the stacked card will be the red-hot Bryce Mitchell, the young Raul Rosas Jr., and the entertaining Chris Curtis.
The Sporting News, with the help of Sports Interaction, takes a closer look at the UFC 282 card.
Can we expect any upsets?
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Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant UFC light heavyweight title
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Ankalaev is the -285 favorite, while Blachowicz is the +205 underdog.
This fight features two mixed styles. Blachowicz has nine wins via knockout and submission. He lands 2.55 significant strikes per minute and has an accuracy mark of 49%. The man with “Polish Power” can also take you down to the floor, averaging 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes. He landed three against Israel Adesanya in 2021.
Ankalaev, a winner of nine in a row, has ten wins via knockout. He lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute and has a 54% accuracy mark. A versatile fighter, Ankalaev can punch or kick you down to the ground. If he needs, Ankalaev can head to the floor, averaging 0.94 takedowns per 15 minutes.
There is a reason Glover Teixeira was not in favor of facing Ankalaev without preparation. Most fighters have not fought Ankalaev because he is dangerous. The Dagestani is a code nobody has been able to crack. Although he is a former champion, Blachowicz may not be able to be the one to succeed where many have failed.
If Blachowicz lands a clear shot, he can hold gold again. However, how likely is that against a monster as relentless as Ankalaev?
Sporting News prediction: Ankalaev via unanimous decision
MORE: All you need to know about UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon; Lightweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Pimblett is the -305 favorite, while Gordon is the +220 underdog.
This matchup is the ultimate test to see if “Paddy The Baddy” can handle a level up in competition. While Gordon is 1-1 in his last two fights, he is 4-1 in his previous five. He is a durable fighter who can strike with the best of them.
However, if the fight went to the floor, Pimblett could put on a show. He averages 1.88 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has a 40% accuracy mark (39% for Gordon, with a 58% takedown defense mark). Gordon has been dropped 12 times in his last four fights. Pimblett has landed four in three bouts and has attempted five submissions. Cranking in rear-naked chokes with ease, Pimblett is an exciting figure.
There may be an issue regarding Pimblett starting slow in fights, but he has the perfect opponent in Gordon. An upset is possible, but the confident Pimblett is ready for anything.
Sporting News prediction: Pimblett via submission (round two)
Alex Morono vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio; Catchweight
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Ponzinibbio is the -185 favorite, while Morono is the +145 underdog. Morono is a replacement opponent, as Robbie Lawler withdrew from the fight. That makes it a much harder bout for Ponzinibbio.
Morono, a winner of four in a row, lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute. He landed 90 in two straight bouts and 106 in his last fight against Matthew Semelsberger. Ponzinibbio is on a two-fight losing streak but is a striking machine. He lands 5.00 strikes per minute and landed 317 strikes in his last three fights.
Given the nature of the bout, is Morono properly prepared for Ponzinibbio? There can be an upset, but is it actually likely? Given Ponzinibbio’s training camp preparation, it isn’t hard to see him pull off the win.
Sporting News prediction: Ponzinibbio via split decision
MORE: Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev purse, salaries
Darren Till vs. Dricus du Plessis; Middleweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, du Plessis is the -185 favorite, while Till is the +155 underdog.
Till, who is 1-4 in his last five fights, will be competing for the first time since September 2021. du Plessis is on a five-fight win streak and is 3-0 in the octagon. Till lands 2.26 significant strikes per minute, while du Plessis lands 6.55, landing 113 against Brad Tavares last time out.
Since the move from 170 to 185, Till hasn’t quite had the same success. It is a fight he needs to win. An issue with du Plessis is his pressure. Pushing through, du Plessis is not afraid to head to the floor. That is something Till has attempted to work on for quite some time. In this case, du Plessis can pull off the win unless Till can manage a knockout blow.
Sporting News prediction: du Plessis via TKO (round two)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria; Featherweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Topuria is the -145 favorite, while Mitchell is the +115 underdog.
This is the fight everyone will be keeping an eye on.
Topuria has won three straight fights via knockout. He lands 2.87 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 48%. His 64% strikes defense mark can help against Mitchell’s 2.28 significant strikes landed per minute.
However, don’t expect a striking clinic between the two.
Mitchell lands an average of 3.40 takedowns per 15 minutes (3.15 for Topuria). Topuria landed five against Youssef Zalal. His opponent has landed 15 in four straight bouts. Against Andre Fili, Mitchell landed 7, and in his last fight, “Thug Nasty” landed four.
Both are ready to secure their spot as top dogs in the featherweight division. Mitchell is the one to keep an eye on. While Topuria is the favorite, Mitchell’s skills are out of this world, especially if he can tire an opponent out.
Sporting News prediction: Mitchell via unanimous decision
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus; Heavyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Rozenstruik is the -160 favorite, while Daukaus is the +120 underdog.
Both heavyweights are on two-fight losing streaks. Rozenstruik averages 2.80 significant strikes per minute and has a 45% strike accuracy mark. Daukaus averages 6.47 and has a 50% accuracy mark. Both are stand-and-bang fighters, always looking for the win via knockout.
Rozenstruik has a two-inch reach advantage but has faltered against fighters like Francis Ngannou, Ciryl Gane, Blaydes, and Alexander Volkov. That could help Daukaus, who has grown to become a threat.
It will be one of many flights that may not last the first round. Defying the odds, Daukaus has what it takes to regain his momentum. Don’t blink!
Sporting News prediction: Daukaus via TKO (round one)
MORE: UFC 282: Where is Glover Teixeira?
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Jay Perrin; Bantamweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Rosas is the -235 favorite, while Perrin is the +180 underdog.
Rosas was born in 2004. Let that sink in. The Dana White’s Contender Series standout impressively beat Mando Gutierrez in September and earned a contract with the UFC. Four of his six MMA wins have ended via submission. He also landed three takedowns against Gutierrez.
Perrin is 10-6 in MMA but 0-3 in the UFC. While he has out-struck two of his three opponents in the octagon, he didn’t impress the judges. He averages 3.84 strikes landed and has taken opponents down nine times.
This is a major test for Rosas, as White will have his eyes on him. “El Nino Problema” doesn’t fold under pressure. The Sporting News predicts a breakout moment for Rosas.
Sporting News prediction: Rosas via submission (round one)
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dalcha Lungiambula; Middleweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Shahbazyan is the -315 favorite, while Lungiambula is the +230 underdog.
Both are on three-fight losing streaks, which makes this a matchup where both are desperate. Shahbazyan landed 3.24 significant strikes per minute, with Lungiambula landing 3.18. Shahbazyan has a better strike accuracy mark (50% compared to 44%), but he does take more damage. “The Golden Boy” is also susceptible to takedowns, something Lungiambula can potentially take advantage of.
Shahbazyan has proven to be a monster in the octagon. There is not much proof in the pudding with Lungiambula yet, especially against higher competition. Given his experience, Shahbazyan should rebound with a big win.
Sporting News prediction: Shahbazyan via TKO (round one)
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Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley; Middleweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Buckley is the -175 favorite, while Curtis is the +130 underdog.
Curtis is a striking machine. “The Action Man” is just that, as he is known for attacking his opponents from the start of the bout. He has 16 wins via knockout. Buckley is the same, winning eleven fights via the power punch. Curtis lands 6.00 significant strikes per minute, with Buckley landing 3.61.
Based on their strike output, Buckley seems much more conservative. That is not necessarily a bad thing. He also can take down opponents, averaging 1.35 takedowns per 15 minutes. With someone like Curtis, Buckley can use his kicks to frustrate him or go shot for shot. Who would win that exchange?
Curtis can strike out of nowhere, but Buckley’s conservativeness appears to give him an edge. Given all of that, a Curtis win would shock most but wouldn’t be absurd. Don’t expect this fight to last all three rounds.
Sporting News prediction: Curtis via knockout (round two)
Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez; Lightweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Quarantillo is the -170 favorite, while Hernandez is the +130 underdog.
Both fighters are 2-2 in their last four bouts. Quarantillo is coming off a war against Shane Burgos where both combined for 357 strikes. Before that, he landed 100 against Gabriel Benitez. Quarantillo averages 7.74 strikes landed per minute. Hernandez has never landed more than 50 strikes and averages 3.97 strikes per minute.
Quarantillo is a pressure fighter, while Hernandez is about showing off his technical skills. The former has more of an edge on the floor. If Quarantillo can not tire out early, his strikes can do some damage. This fight has a chance to be a scrappy affair, with Quarantillo coming out as the winner.
Sporting News prediction: Quarantillo via unanimous decision
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T.J. Brown vs. Erik Silva; Featherweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, T.J. Brown and Erik Silva are even at -115.
Both fighters are coming off losses, with Silva on a 0-2 skid and Brown on a one-fight losing streak. Brown has an edge in the grappling department, averaging 3.86 takedowns per 15 minutes (0.85 for Silva). In three bouts Brown has landed nine takedowns, even attempting to submit Shayilan Nuerdanbieke four times in a loss.
Silva can grab an opponent at any point and submit them without warning. This is all about who has the skill to strike first and take advantage, hence the tough odds in this matchup.
The unpredictability factor for Silva comes into play here, especially if he starts the bout with an aggressive nature. Brown needs to take advantage of any takedown he has landed, but previous fights have not helped in confidently picking him to win. Silva may be the smart bet here.
Sporting News prediction: Silva via submission (round one)
Vinicius Salvador vs. Daniel da Silva; Flyweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Salvador is the -250 favorite, while da Silva is the +185 underdog.
da Silva has lost three straight fights in the octagon, with two via KO and one via submission. He lands 4.29 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 10.26 shots per minute. Salvador won his only UFC fight in August, landing 79 shots. He appears to have adapted well to the octagon life and has won four straight bouts via knockout.
Pressing forward and applying pressure, Salvador can make any opponent feel nervous. Against someone who has not adapted well in da Silva, Salvador should get the win. The only edge da Silva may have is his grappling game, but Salvador may be too slick for him. Salvador is ready to make himself known in the flyweight division.
Sporting News prediction: Salvador via TKO (round one)
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Cameron Saaiman vs. Steven Koslow; Bantamweights
In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Saaiman is the -365 favorite, while Koslow is the +255 underdog.
Koslow, making his UFC debut, is a replacement opponent after Ronnie Lawrence withdrew from the bout. 6-0 in MMA, Koslow has won all of his bouts via submission. Saaiman, also 6-0, is a former Dana White’s Contender Series alum. In his only octagon fight against Joshua Wang-Kim, Saaiman landed 57 shots with one takedown.
At 21, Saaiman has the attention of UFC President Dana White, who nicknamed him “The Future” at one point. No pressure or anything. With octagon experience, Saaiman should be able to take home the win, as long as he doesn’t get into his own head and make mistakes that can lead to a submission loss.
Sporting News prediction: Saaiman via TKO (round two)
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