Texas A&M vs. Houston prediction: March Madness odds, picks

Aside from UConn, Houston looks like the NCAA Tournament favorites. 

The Coogs obliterated Stetson in the first round, overwhelming the Hatters with their nation-best defense. 

However, I genuinely think Texas A&M is the one team Houston didn’t want to play during this NCAA Tournament run. 

The Aggies are running hot and present tough schematic issues for Houston in the second round.

Texas A&M vs. Houston Odds

(Odds via Draftkings Sportsbook)

Texas A&M vs. Houston Prediction

(8:40 p.m. ET, TNT)

Texas A&M and Houston played each other in non-conference play. 

Houston won, but it was far from a cakewalk. 

The Cougars won by four, but they needed an 11-for-27 (41%) 3-point shooting percentage to win, and the Aggies didn’t have Tyrece Radford. 

If Radford is playing or Houston bricks a few more 3s, we’d be talking about this matchup in a different light. 

Houston’s aggressive ball-screen blitz defense is nearly impossible to exploit, but the Cougars are vulnerable in a few areas. 

First, the Cougars attack you on defense, sending two to the ball on every screen.

While they force tons of turnovers, the style leaves them vulnerable on the boards, where they rank 223rd in defensive rebounding rate. 

Meanwhile, Texas A&M is the nation’s best offensive-rebounding team.

The Aggies’ 42% offensive rebounding rate is among the best single-season power-conference marks teams in the KenPom era. 

So, predictably, in the non-conference head-to-head meeting, Texas A&M scored 21 second-chance points on 17 offensive rebounds. 

Second, the Cougars’ aggressive defense fouls often, as they rank sub-300th nationally in free-throw rate allowed.

Texas A&M is a downhill-driving, rim-oriented offense, and the Aggies draw fouls at a top-50 rate nationally. 

So, predictably, the Aggies generated 22 charity-stripe attempts in the first matchup, making 15. 

Texas A&M can win this game based on extras alone. 

However, the Aggies can flirt with an upset if they make shots. 

Houston’s aggressive ball-screen blitz defense makes it vulnerable to crisp passing and weak-side shooters, as the Cougars rely on weak-side rotations when trapping. 

Texas A&M will shoot.

The Aggies simply haven’t made a shot all year. 

The Aggies have shot 29% from 3 this season, but ShotQuality projects they should be shooting 33% based on the “quality” of attempts. 

But they’re finally starting to see some positive shooting regression.

The Aggies are shooting 42% from 3 since March 6, winning five of six games during the stretch, including an SEC Tournament win over Kentucky and a first-round NCAA Tournament win over Nebraska. 

If the Aggies can stay hot from deep, they have the horses to beat Houston on Sunday.

Betting on College Basketball?

Again, the Cougars won the head-to-head meeting by four because they shot 41% from deep in Radford’s absence. 

Radford is Texas A&M’s best isolation scorer, and avoiding ball screens altogether and leaning into hero ball is an excellent way to beat a ball-screen blitz defense.

With Radford back in the fold, the Aggies can exploit Houston more in isolation. 

Plus, since Radford returned for Texas A&M, Houston lost Joseph Tugler and Ramon Walker to season-ending injuries, significantly hindering the Cougars’ depth. 

The Aggies competed with Houston in the last head-to-head meeting, and I fully believe they can win outright with Radford in the fold and Tugler out. 

At a minimum, they will snag enough offensive rebounds and generate enough free throws to hang within single digits for 40 minutes.  

Texas A&M vs. Houston Pick

Texas A&M +10 | Play to +8